54th FVP Knoxville Nationals Preview

Knoxville Nationals Preview - by Eric Arnold

The Knoxville Nationals is almost here and with a lot of rain outs here I've been able to gather up my annual preview blog early this year. I study a lot of stats, data, prior year finishes, and try to account how their current season is progressing to come up with my power rankings and predictions.  As I look into my crystal ball, this is what I how break down the field (as of today).

The Favorite:
1) Donny Schatz is a seven time champion, has won the last three Nationals, and seven of the last eight. His past ten Nationals, his average finish is 2.3.  For more than a decade he has dominated this race and although he struggled to an 11th place finish at the World of Outlaws show at Knoxville this year, it’s hard to bet against him winning another Nationals title.  If anyone other than Schatz wins, it will be considered an upset. 

Contenders:

2) Kerry Madsen is a real contender this year. The 2005 Knoxville Raceway Track Champion is having his best season ever on the Outlaws tour, winning six features, including the $50,000 to win Kings Royal. He is fifth in WoO points. His Nationals resume doesn’t stand out with making the Championship A-Main only four times in the past ten years, with an average ten year finish of 23.8.  But Madsen finished fifth in 2010, the best finish of any Australian at the Nationals. Last year he timed twelfth and finished second in his preliminary feature to start eighth on Saturday and fell to 16th. I look for the Mad Man to be better this year, and having ace Tyler Swank spinning the wrenches, a local guy who knows Knoxville very well helps his chances even more.


3) Brian Brown finished second the last two years at the Nationals. Brown has been waiting for a whole year for this moment, and he has used each night as a practice session to be ready to win this race. He has been solid in recent years on preliminary nights, with a feature win in 2013, has timed in the top ten the past four years, his 5 year average in heat race finish is 2.6.  The last three years Brown’s average finish is 3.7 on Saturday night. I hope he can get it done this year.

4) Kevin Swindell does nothing but race to the front at Knoxville. He is my pick to win the 360 Nationals this year. He was so good in the Indy Race Parts #71 last year and has been this year when he has sat in it, I think he can get up front again this year. He finished 20th at last years Nationals, but was in the top five before he had problems. Shocked to see me pick Kevin this high? I am too in a way.

5) Shane Stewart was the runner-up in 2011 and has been knocking on the door.  He has qualified for the Nationals Championship feature thirteen consecutive years and won two preliminary night features. He had a disappointing 2013 Nationals finishing 13th after a good starting position. He has a new ride this season in the Larson-Marks #2. His average finish the past three years is 8.3, his five year average is 6.6, and his ten year average is 10.4. Other than Schatz he has been the most consistent performer in the past decade.

6) Joey Saldana is having a great season with the Outlaws and his Nationals resume is impressive, finishing second place, three times. Joey has one prelim win, set quick time four times, and his five year qualifying average is 3.0.  Joey was on the pole last year on Saturday night and finished seventh. Trust me when I say Joey Saldana is out to prove himself this year. He is running out of chances to win this race, which his father won back in 1970.

7) Daryn Pittman won the World of Outlaws championship last year and is backing it up this season by winning nine features on the Outlaw circuit. His only wins at Knoxville have come in the exhibition World Challenge races in 2004 and 2005, and his Nationals resume has one top five in 2011, three top ten’s, and his three year average finish is 11.3.  He timed 18^th and finished fourth this season in the Knoxville Outlaw show.  Last year on the prelim night DP timed ninth, finished fifth in his heat, fourth in the B-Main, and raced from 24^th to fifth in the A-Main. He started eleventh and finished 14^th on Saturday after he made contact with Steve Kinser on lap four and a left front tire went down and had to restart at the tail. Pittman will be out to prove something this year, and he is long overdue for a breakout Nationals.

Top Five Wild Cards

8) Terry McCarl is having another good season at Knoxville, and is the current KCCS point leader. The seven-time track champion missed the championship feature each of the last two years, but his team is far better this season. Although he hasn’t won a feature yet, he has been the best car week in and week out. He finished second at the Knoxville Outlaws show, and has four top five’s and nine top ten finishes in Outlaws competition this season, so he has been strong away from his home track as well. Something tells me T-Mac not only makes the Championship A-Main, but is a top ten car and don’t be surprised to see him closer to the front.

9) Sammy Swindell was barely in my top 25 until his announcement to leave the Outlaw tour and to focus only on Knoxville for the next few weeks. Well that changes things. Sammy just switched from Parker engines to Kistler at the Kings Royal, and was basically out of the WoO points chase sitting in tenth. With 2 wins and finishing out of the top ten more than half the races they were struggling. But you give one of the greatest drivers and racing minds of all time 3 race night practice sessions at Knoxville before the Nationals and you know he will get dialed in. Maybe 9th is too low on my list. The Nationals is a race Sammy hasn’t won in 31 years and he clearly wants to win it again badly in what will be his record 40th attempt at the Knoxville Nationals.

10) Paul McMahan is having a good season with the Outlaws, and has a nice string of eight consecutive Nationals A-Main starts. McMahan has six top ten finishes and has set quick time three times. Last year he set quick time, finished fourth in his heat, and eighth in his feature. On Saturday night he started sixth and finished a career best fourth. He has been consistent, but hasn’t had been on the podium or won a preliminary night feature. He has two feature wins with the Outlaws this season so far, sits fourth in points, and the only driver with more top five finishes is Schatz. I look for the CJB #51 to be a contender once again, and if they can find that one missing gear, they could be on the podium.

11) Stevie Smith has finished in the top ten, three of the last five years at the Knoxville Nationals. He sat on the pole in 2012 and led thirteen laps before finishing seventh. In 2013 he crashed on the first lap. The Black Bandit is always good at Knoxville and with the Fred Rahmer behind him this year he just might have a shot to win. He has a great Nationals resume with six top five finishes, fourteen top ten’s, and made the championship race 20 times in 24 entries. The racing God’s owe him win after taking away the 1993 race. Nothing would be a more feel good story than to see this veteran finally win the Nationals.

12) David Gravel won his preliminary feature last year and has been good all season in the Roth 83 car with the Outlaws. Last year I predicted the Nationals would be his coming out party and I was right.  Gravel has competed in the Nationals four times and his worst Saturday finish was his rookie year finishing eleventh in the B-Main and he has improved each year. This guy could take that next step and move into a top five contender. He is clearly comfortable at Knoxville.

13) Justin Henderson finished third in 2013 and I really really want to pick him to finish higher. I hope he does. He knows his way around Knoxville and has more laps than anyone else this season racing full time in both the 410 and 360 classes, but he hasn’t won a 410 feature yet and they seem to be a tick off from last year. But that being said, he could find it again and be right back on the podium again this year. 

14) Dale Blaney is having another good year in Ohio with the All-Stars series. Last year he struggled at Knoxville and ended up in the C-Main on Saturday ending a streak of four consecutive Saturday A-Main appearances. Blaney won’t miss it two years in a row. If he gets the setup right, look for him to move forward in 50 laps.

15) Brad Sweet won the June Outlaw show at Knoxville and has been having a great year so far winning five Outlaws features and is sixth in points. Since winning the Kings Royal last year he has put the world on notice he is a very talented winged sprint car driver. Sweet finished eighth after starting on the pole of the 2011 Nationals while subbing for an injured Joey Saldana. He started fifth and finished thirteenth last year. He has had fast cars, but lacked the experience. Sweet has that experience now and I look for the #49 to be racing hard toward the front and maybe a top five.

Most likely A-Main Starters

16) Craig Dollansky has been one of the most consistent drivers at the Nationals over the past decade with his average finish the past ten starts being 8.8, but his past three year average is 15.0. He finished third in 2012 and his resume has seven top five finishes and 13 top ten’s in 20 entries. Dollansky has won three feature at Knoxville this season, but they were all from the front row. He hasn’t been qualifying well on weekly shows but with his experience I think he figures it out in time for Nationals.

17) Ian Madsen has one win at Knoxville this season and with all the attention focused on guys like Brown, McCarl, and Dollansky, Ian is sitting there in the shadows have a great season, sitting second in KCCS points.  Ian has raced with the Outlaws on several occasions this year and has performed well. He made the championship A-Main the past two seasons and I see no reason he won’t again this year.

18) Danny Lasoski finished eighth last year.  He hasn’t had a stellar season in 2014, but with 50 laps around Knoxville, he is a threat to win no matter where he starts if he has good equipment. It will just depend on what his family owned 33 can bring to Knoxville in August. 

19) Steve Kinser finished ninth in 2013 after missing the 2012 championship race. The King is 60 years old and still getting done. I don’t know how many more chances we will have to see him race at the Nationals, but this could be his last and I know he will want to go out on a high note.  I hope he has a great Nationals and we see him compete towards the front.

20) Greg Hodnett has had another good season in Pennsylvania. He has a solid Nationals resume with three top five’s, five top ten’s, and made the championship race 14 out of 23 entries. He finished second in 1997, was sixth in 2010. He is with a new team this year, but I think he can put in the show one more time.

21) Rico Abreu will likely get some seat time at Knoxville between now and the Nationals. In his rookie season last year at the Nationals he only made it to the C-Main. But with Paul Silva turning the wrenches for him this year, winning a Outlaws race in the spring, maturing as a driver, I think he is good enough to put it in the show this year.  

22) Davey Heskin is a Knoxville Regular who has put his red number 56 in the championship feature three times before and finished in the top ten twice.  Last year he came up short in the B-Main, but I think he is back this year, and if the bottom is razor thin, no one is better at Knoxville than Davey on that extreme bottom groove next to the berm.

23) Cody Darrah has made the championship race the last two year, finishing 15th last year, but spun early and might have had a better result if that hadn’t happened. The sky is the limit for Darrah. He is the ultimate wild card in my opinion. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top five, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him coming up from the B-Main and racing his way in from Friday night. He finished 14th in the June Outlaws show at Knoxville.

24) Bronson Maeschen is the defending Knoxville Raceway Track Champion. He has qualified for the Nationals championship feature once before in 2008, and last year he was in position until he was ran over in his heat race. This year he gets back in the show to represent the Knoxville Regulars.

25) Danny Dietrich was the 2013 Nationals Rookie of the Year and he is having another good year out in PA.  He finished 16^th in the B-Main last year and logged a lot of laps racing the 360 Nationals, Friday Hard Knox, and the World Challenge. You can bet Dietrich will be ready to make some noise this year and if there is a breakout performer this year at the Nationals, I think it’s this guy.

A-Main Hopefuls:

Chad Kemenah has three top five Nationals finishes and was fifth a year ago. He has dropped from the full time Outlaws tour this year and the WoO shows he has been at, his average finish is 17.3. But something in my gut tells me he has had the Nationals circled on his calendar all year and I think he makes the show.

Mark Dobmeier won an Outlaw show this summer in Minnesota. 2013 he finished in the B-Main, but made the A-Main in 2012 and 2011. Dobs has a shot to make it this year.

Dusty Zomer is another Knoxville Regular who has had a good season. He has made the championship race five times and finished 11th in 2013. He has had a solid 2014 season weekly at Knoxville.

Sam Hafertepe Jr. has struggled the past two years at the Nationals, finishing 21st in the B-Main after winning the C-Main last year. I think Sam is due.

Tim Kaeding lost his WoO ride in the spring and after it seemed his career was peaking, winning The Classic in Australia, well life has turned the other way quickly. TK has two Nationals preliminary wins, one top five, two top ten’s in the championship race, but last year didn’t get out of the B-Main.

Tim Shaffer is quietly having a decent season on the All-Stars tour.  The 2010 Nationals champion failed to make the championship feature the last two years.  He has been so good at Knoxville the past decade it’s hard to count him out.

Wild Cards:

Jason Meyers, Cap Henry, Jac Haudenschild, Kraig Kinser, Jason Sides, Brady Bacon, Lucas Wolfe, Brian Paulus, Jason Johnson, Wayne Johnson, Johnny Herrera, Danny Holtgraver, Brooke Tatnell, Randy Hannagan, Bill Balog.

Anyone on this list could make the championship race on Saturday. And any of them could be stuck in the B or C Main as well.

Jason Meyers struggled both attempts at Knoxville this season in the 83 car. He has been fast at Knoxville in prior years but with seven top ten finishes, four top five’s, and he won a preliminary feature in 2012.  You can’t count him out with his experience.  

Cap Henry doesn’t have a ride yet, but a guy who finished TENTH in last year’s Nationals shouldn’t be unemployed long I hope.

Rookies:
Curtis Evans, Gary Taylor, Tyler Courtney, Jamie Ball, Jeremy Schultz, Colby Copeland, Paige Polyak, Jason Tostenson, Andy Gregg.

We have 9 rookies entered so far and the only driver I know much of anything about is local Jamie Ball, so I have to pick him as the early favorite to win RoY. Paige Polyak is the first female driver to win a sprint car race at Eldora and that is quite an accomplishment. She is also the only female driver entered as of today.

You can follow me all week on Twitter @_EricArnold, and the tracks results and stats @KnoxvilleRaces, @KnoxvilleNats, and each day on my blog http://hawkeyeovals.blogspot.com/

Let’s see how it pans out in 2014!!!