Sammy Swindell is my pick to win. He is strong at Knoxville, he won the Royal, it’s been 29 years since the last and only time he won this race. It’s his time.
The other contenders to win are Donny Schatz, Joey Saldana, Danny Lasoski, Shane Stewart, and Craig Dollansky.
Schatz is a five time winner and the most consistent of anyone ever in a 10 year span. He has finished first or second nine out the last ten years… it’s an astonishing record.
Saldana has finished second three times at the Nationals and he missed last years race due to injury. Joey has looked strong at times this season, and bad at other times. But he will show up with his best car and engine at Knoxville and I think he gets back on the podium.
Lasoski is still as good as anyone at Knoxville, a 4 time champion, but he has missed the Saturday A-Main the past two years with an embarrassing D-Main finish last year. He is in the Zemco 1 car and they have been good in recent years with Stevie Smith behind the wheel so I think the Dude is overdue for a good Nationals and gets in to the top five for sure.
Shane Stewart has three consecutive top five’s at the Nationals. I think he gets it done again this year in the Silva 57 car. This is the one race Paul and Shane have focused on all year, they will be ready and just maybe they can get the win if they can start a little closer to the front on Saturday night.
Craig Dollansky is also one of the most consistent drivers at the Nationals in the past decade. He has been in the top ten of the Nationals nine of the past ten years and the one year he didn’t he was injured. The Crowd Pleaser is looking strong this year winning several races and I think he has a chance to win if he can start closer to the front like Stewart.
As fast at Kerry Madsen and Kraig Kinser have been the past couple of months I think you have to consider them as guys with a shot. And Brian Brown hasn’t had the finishes with the WoO to show how fast he is, but he is running up front and has a legitimate shot. And he is bad fast at Knoxville. I also think Daryn Pittman has a chance. He looked really good last year and led the race briefly. Jason Meyers is also someone to keep an eye on, but a big question mark there as far as what kind of equipment he has and if he will be as sharp as he needs to be.
After those drivers we get to teams that I feel are a top ten contender and will make the show; Tim Shaffer, Stevie Smith, Paul McMahan, Brad Sweet, and Steve Kinser.
Shaffer has an impressive record in recent years at Knoxville with a win two years ago and other top ten’s. But he hasn’t been as dominant in Ohio this year. I hope the 83 car puts it all together again for a good show this year.
Stevie Smith and Paul McMahan are consistent top ten drivers at the Nationals. You know they will be there. I think Brad Sweet has a chance to get a top ten again this year to back up his eighth place last year.
Steve Kinser…. well his record isn’t very King-esque in recent years, but he is still winning some races and up at the top of the WoO point standings so you can’t rule him out. He is a wild card for sure. The last three years since the 40 and 50 lap features were implemented his finishes are 16, 22, and 12. Not sure the longer races fits his game and he has been less than impressive at recent Knoxville WoO shows. I wouldn’t be surprised if the King is racing his way in from the B-Main. But I would love to see him get one more win. It’s been ten years since he last won.
Other drivers that I think can make the A-Main on Saturday night are: Chad Kemenah, Greg Hodnett, Davey Heskin, Jason Johnson, Dale Blaney, Tim Kaeding, Terry McCarl, Wayne Johnson.
Drivers on the bubble and probable B-Main cars: Justin Henderson, Jason Sides, David Gravel, Mark Dobmeier, Dusty Zomer, Lance DeWease, Jac Haudenschild, Ian Madsen, Bronson Maeschen, Johnny Herrera, Brady Bacon, Lucas Wolfe, Fred Rahmer, Brian Montieth, Cody Darrah, Kyle Larson, Sam Hafertepe Jr., Dustin Selvage, Jonathan Allard, Brooke Tatnell.
This is certainly a year for change at the Knoxville Nationals. New General Manager Toby Kruse and Race Director John McCoy are calling the shots and we’re seeing a slightly new format in the qualifying procedure that I am excited for. After the Wednesday and Thursday qualifying nights, only the top sixteen cars in points are locked in for the big dance on Saturday night, compared to fifty cars in the past. Cars 17-26 in points will have the first choice to either start up front of the 22 lap B-Main on Saturday night, or requalify on Friday night with the rest of the field. But there will be ten cars locked into the Saturday B-Main regardless, so if someone is 20th in points and they elect to race on Friday, the 27th points car has the option and so on. This will set up some drama and some interesting strategy for teams, and most importantly a great Friday show that the Nationals format has needed for some time.
On Friday night points are wiped away and it becomes a new race with the reward being that the top four in Friday’s A-Main will be locked into positions 17-20 for Saturday nights A-Main. Positions 5-14 are then locked into the Saturday B-Main and how the rest of the teams finish in their features on Friday night determines where they will start Saturday in the C, D, and E Main’s. Friday night matters now and it will have a meaningful impact which is what has been lacking from the format in the past. There is something more to race for now besides the eleventh spot in the C-Main Saturday night. The Knoxville Nationals has some traditions that need to stay forever, but I love that management continues to evolve with the times and gives the race fans the most for our money.
It was controversial when the Saturday A-Main changed from a 30 lap race to 40 laps in 2009. And then the race was extended to 50 laps in 2010. The additional laps have had a massive impact on the Saturday night championship race. It was a brilliant plan, even if you don’t like the pit stop.
In the ten years prior to that change from 1999 through 2008, the average starting position of the champion was 2.9, and every winner came from the front two rows with the exception of Mark Kinser coming from seventh in 1999. Take away the 1999 race and it was an average of 2.4. The past three years the Knoxville Nationals Champion has an average starting position of 8.6…. YES, I said eight point six!!! Donny Schatz started thirteenth in 2011, Tim Shaffer started seventh in 2010, and Schatz started sixth in 2009. I think it was an excellent choice to extend the number of laps. I’m not so sure Steve Kinser likes the longer 40 and 50 lap races however. His average finish the past three years is 16.67. Joey Saldana and Sammy Swindell would have won if the race was only 30 laps in 2009 and 2010.
This new format has given us better racing without a doubt. How do you argue with numbers? I love numbers by the way. In the past three Nationals there are only four drivers who have made the Saturday A-Main top ten each year, Donny Schatz, Shane Stewart, Tim Shaffer, and Craig Dollanksy. Schatz has an average finish of 1.3, average starting position of 7.6, and a qualifying average of 4.0. Shane Stewart has an average finish of 3.3, average starting position of 13.0, and a qualifying average of 12.3. Tim Shaffer has an average finish of 4.0, average starting position of 11.3, and a qualifying average of 10.0. Craig Dollanksy has an average finish of 7.7, average starting position of 20.0, and a qualifying average of 16.0. So other than Schatz, on average these other drivers are starting in the sixth row or further back and getting to the front.
We have also seen a record number of lead changes in the championship race as 2011 saw a record six lead changes, and in 2010 there was five. The record prior was four (2006, 1998, 1993, and 1990). So the past three years an average of 4.3 lead changes, and the ten years prior 1.8 lead changes. The longer race has given us more racing up front.
If you’re looking to bet on a fantasy nationals team (as I do) here are the top twenty drivers ranked by average finish over the past three years, with a minimum of two entries into the Nationals. In case you’re wondering I used fifth place in the B-Main as 25th finishing position and so forth.
1. Schatz 1.33, 2. Stewart 3.33, 3. Shaffer 4.00, 4. Dollanksy 7.67, 5. Stevie Smith 8.67, 6. Joey Saldana 13.00, 7. Paul McMahan 13.00, 8. Jason Johnson 13.00, 9. Terry McCarl 13.33, 10. Brian Brown 14.67, 11. Dale Blaney 15.67, 12. Greg Hodnett 16.00, 13. Steve Kinser 16.67, 14. Brad Sweet 17.00, 15. Daryn Pittman 22.33, 16. Sammy Swindell 23.00, 17. Kerry Madsen 24.67, 18. Skip Jackson 26.50, 19. Kraig Kinser 26.67, 20. Tim Kaeding 29.33.
You think the qualifying order draw is a big deal? It is for sure, but the new format helps give someone a second and maybe even a third chance. I have always loved how teams have to claw their way and work for every position with the heat and feature inverts on the Wednesday and Thursday qualifying nights. But at least now if a team has a bad night and didn’t qualify well, they have a chance to keep clawing their way to the front with another chance on Friday, more laps on Saturday, meanwhile they’re putting on a show for the fans and without the fans this whole event isn’t possible and the teams are not racing for so much money and prestige.
A wise man once said, “Everything changes, nothing ever stays the same.” The track has evolved from wooden fences to aluminum guard rails. Highway 14 has widened from a two lane highway to four lanes. The stadium has evolved from a wooden covered grandstand, to 21 rows across the front stretch, to 40 rows, suites, and a backstretch with 27 rows. The cars get faster, and more expensive, the purse continues to get bigger, and even Dingus Lounge added on a new building. Change and evolution is all around us. But in the end we’re all here to have a good time and to see the best racing of the year, where every position matters, with the most money on the line, in the most prestigious race in our sport, THE Knoxville Nationals.
